Tennis mixed rules - worth arbing?

Sep 04 2011

Lesson 17 – Arbitrage on tennis – mixed rules – is it worth playing?

Arbitrage Lessons 0 1

Advice 2 – For professionals

You need to estimate risk for player retirement and decide whether listed arbitrage is valuable or not. Lets consider two situations to show you how it works in practice:

Situation 1

You have spotted arbitrage between Bwin and Pinnacle Sports:

Pinnacle @ Roger Federer to win a game @ 1.10
Bwin @ Lukasz Kubot to win a game @ 13.00

This is solid 1,4% surebet, however there are different settlement rules between Pinnacle Sports and Bwin.

Bwin needs just one ball to be played (match to start) to treat all bets valid, whereas Pinnacle Sports needs one entire set to be played for the bets to be sustained. What does it mean for us in this case?

Lets say we have placed 5 000 EUR bet on Federer in Pinnacle and 423 EUR bet on Kubot in Bwin.

Case 1

No player retirement or retirement after first set – 77 EUR win

Case 2

Kubot retires in set 1
Pinnacle refunds stake, Bwin settles as lost – 423 EUR lost

Case 3

Federer retires in set 1
Pinnacle refunds stake, Bwin settles as win – 5077 EUR win

As you can see this is very valuable bet. Most likely we will win 77 EUR, which is decent. It might happen that we lose 423 EUR, but equally probable is that we win 5077 EUR (lets assume that chances for Kubot’s retirement in first set are identical to chances that Federer will retire in first set).

So after such analysis you absolutely should place such bet!

Situation 2

You have spotted arbitrage between Bwin and Tobet:

Bwin @ Roger Federer to win a game @ 1.10
Tobet @ Lukasz Kubot to win a game @ 13.00

This is again solid 1,4% surebet, however there are different settlement rules between Tobet and Bwin.

Bwin needs just one ball to be played (or in other words match must start) to treat all bets valid, whereas Tobet needs entire match to be played for the bets to be sustained (whichever player retirement means cancellation of all bets). What does it mean to us in this particular case?

Lets say we have placed 5 000 EUR bet on Federer in Bwin and 423 EUR bet on Kubot in Tobet.

Case 1

No player retirement – 77 EUR win

Case 2

Kubot retires during a game
Tobet refunds stake, Bwin settles as win – 500 EUR win

Case 3

Federer retires during a game
Tobet refunds stake, Bwin settles as lost – 5000 EUR lost

As you can see this is very risky bet. Most likely we will win 77 EUR, which is again decent. It might happen that we win 500 EUR, but unfortunately equally probable is that we lose 5000 EUR (lets assume that chances for Kubot’s retirement are identical to chances that Federer will retire).

So after this brief analysis you rather should not place such bet!

And again remember this – you do not need to waste precious arber’s time and analyse each case yourself. Surebet Monitor will do it for you.

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