“HOT” live surebets events
Let’s assume that it is Saturday afternoon and you, sitting comfortable before your beloved PC can track just 2-3 games live and you look for the arbs yourself. Which ones you should choose to make this Saturday activity most efficient? Is there a trick that you need to know to improve live-arbing results?
Today we will show you one and suggest you some events that have a lot more potential of producing arbitrage opportunities compared to the other ones.
Red card is your ally. Two red cards are two allies.
Generally we have two families of bookmakers. The Asians (SBObet, 12bet, Dafabet, Singbet etc + Pinnacle Sports) and The Others.
All of the services belonging to the Asian group are similar one to the other in defining team’s chances live, but differ from the books from the Other group. Anyway, if the game goes in a predictable way, all of the services will keep similar attitude when it goes to estimating chances -> resulting in defining odds and generally this will mean low arbitrage count. RED CARD will affect this pattern. Frequently red card will disturb the live-betting algorithms the bookies from “The Other” group uses and they will no longer be accurate. This will result in plenty of arbitrages. If another RED CARD is issued, the mess will be even greater. Look for these events.
The less expected the progress of the game the more live opportunities.
Another time, the automated live-algorithms “The Other” group bookmakers use will not withstand if the game progress is totally weird. Imagine Barcelona plays home against Granada and loses two goals in first quarter of a game and more than that, Messi gets a red card. This is what you are looking for being an live-arber!
The bigger the difference between the teams, the better.
This rule apply to football, but even more to basketball and handball, preferably to the handicap markets. “The Other” group bookies tend to undervalue handicaps for favorites and overvalue handicaps for underdogs. We say they take position in the game… the idea is though simple. Look at the example below:
Again Barcelona playing a game home against Granada and Messi is in top shit form:
Odds Asian bookie live 1′ (beginning of the game):
Barca -2.5 @ 1.952
Granada +2.5 @ 1.952
Odds The Other bookie live 1′ (beginning of the game):
Barca -2.5 @ 1.600
Granada +2.5 @ 2.150
No discussion, the accurate odds coming from the Asian bookie. These guys are professionals and cannot afford to do shitty things. The Other bookie, that is targeting mostly recreational players (and limited pro ones already) assumes that 90% of gamblers will anyway exploit -2.5 Barcelona line, even though the odd is just 1.60. That is why they lower the odd for this resolution.
So these are opportunities you are looking for. This works the same way in handball and basket.
In the next article we will check which sports generate most live-arbitrage opportunities, so stay with us.
We recommend OddStorm.com as a currently best service for in-play sports arbitrage experience. Please their review here.
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