Chapter 02 – The Metamorphosis
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different resultsA. Einstein
– Hi Jack, it’s Chris on the phone. You might not remember me, but we were watching the Chelsea game together at Tim’s place last month, and went to “Why not” for clubbing afterwards.
– I remember well dude. I mean, I remember you, even though that night I had some deadly blackouts though… Forget it… what’s up mate?
– I’d like to grab a beer this evening, there’s one thing I would like to ask you about, it’s about betting.
– Sure, what about 8PM today at Sam’s Pub?
– Great, see you there.
I’m telling you guys, standing here, waiting for him, I am confused with mixed feelings. Well it’s just betting after all, is it not for fun? Why I am going for this talk with him? Perhaps it would have been better to stay at home and analyze these games for the next match day? There are some hot favorites after all. Barcelona is playing home again and Messi will score for sure. Yeah, I guess I am wasting my time here, as I will waste his. I think I will call him now and cancel this meeting before he…
– Heey Chris, nice seeing you again mate, I hope you haven’t been waiting long for me, have you?
– Ugh… well… Nope… not at all Jack, good seeing you!
– Great, so let’s get some beer first (two large Heinekens for us both, if possible), you pay dude?
– Of course, I invited you.
– Great, please bring two rounds then, second is on me.
Wow, trust me guys this waitress is smoking hot. I would bet I saw her in the clubs last week. My god, her moves… yes, she was dressed differently, of course, but I would bet one million bucks it was her indeed… On the other hand, my betting skills have been found lacking lately.
– Hey, wake up Chris, tell me what’s going on with that betting thing you mentioned, it makes me kinda curious.
– Ugh, well it’s not a big deal really, perhaps we could speak about it another time. Things are well in general, you know and these chicks here are so awesome.
– Common, go on fellow, I see you wriggle on this chair, tell me what’s up. Let me help you. Talking betting never gets boring, and I feel we’re gonna be sitting here for a while.
– Alright, let me briefly tell you what’s been going on. To be honest I just can’t stand this bad luck we have been through with James, when betting this year. You know, it sucks so much, I mean we lost last parlay due to obvious ref mistake, it was a fucking offside for fuck’s sake, and the one before due to a red card outta ref’s ass, I mean it ruins all our efforts, the entire analysis effort is for nothing and we’re losing cash big time. I mean it’s just so unfair, we’re doing our best and we keep losing all the time. Just yesterday Barcelona drawn home 1-1 to Espanyol to kill my 7-fold parlay and 1 000 EUR in winnings. They had like 20 goal attempts and Espanyol just one, how one can be so unlucky Jack, just tell me? I do not know what to do, I feel I cannot bet better than I do now.
– Hahaha, this is awesome, you comedian! Wait…, you’re serious?
– No, I am serious, what is so funny about that?
– Well, nothing really, except for the fact, that you’re way of thinking about betting is completely fucked up.
– I don’t get it.
– Yeah, based on what you just told me I am sure you don’t. Look, try to analyze the games and picks backwards, the ones you lost, how many bad “one time” bad luck actions happened, you know like penalty out of thin air, red card, one attempt-one goal by underdogs, missing 100 chances by favorites etc…?
– Well… let me think… Barcelona yesterday, last game that we watched with James was also sick like hell, the one last week for Arsenal playing away… quite a lot Jack, many I would say, why do you ask?
– And you still say each of them is “one time bad luck”?
– Sure, each of them was completely messed up, you wouldn’t have believed it had you watched them.
– Yeah, certainly. Anyway – how many games out of this sort do you recall for last month?
– Well, at least 4 maybe more, yeah 5 at least. Nope, sorry 6. Let me think… the one in Europa League was also ridiculous, 7.
– Alright, hold on mate. 7 is already more than “one time” right?
– Guess so.
– So you just can’t say each of these games was an exception, since there are many of them, can you?
– I guess I can’t, right.
– Exactly. This is dude not an exception, it’s a pattern. It’s like that. These things will happen from time to time. Do you remember that memorable champions league final, when Manchester United won against Bayern 2-1, though losing 0-1 till 89th minute? Or Liverpool losing against Milan 0-3 halftime and winning the trophy in the end after penalties?
– Sure I do. Memorable games. Great ones. I was still a kid watching Red Devils at that game, but the latter one I remember really well. We’d been watching that one with friends on holidays. You wouldn’t believe it, but the party after the game, was even better than the game itself…
– Right, anyway Chris, you need to understand one thing. If there is a chance to score two goals in few minutes in the champions league final, if there is a chance to win a game losing 0-3 halftime there is also a fair chance to get a red card, miss 10, 20 or 30 perfect 100% chances. That is why I told you that you need to change your way of thinking. It’s not that you have troubles in analyzing games, you simply don’t get betting in overall. You are clueless to how it works. And you have to change that if you want to earn on betting.
– Mate, I’m sure I understand it well, I’m betting with James, with some other guys and they say I’m a talented punter and good at it and that my predictions are awesome sometimes.
– Yet you’re in the red.
– Eh, yes.
– And your friends? Are they winning on betting?
– So, since you asked for my advice here is the one: do not listen to your betting fellows, for a moment do not listen to your betting voice also. You already did a good job coming here, it really can save you some time and cash. Just ask yourself once again, why should you listen to fellows who lose money on betting?
– Perhaps you are right, we all have been losing money there. It’s hard to confess, but that’s true.
– Good that you get it.
– So, Jack could you tell me how I can change this? Is it possible to win on betting at all?
– Sure it’s Chris, since I’ve been doing that for a decade. It’s enough talking for today though, these beers are quite strong combination when mixed with that vodka you ordered 5 minutes ago. Let’s hook up with some girls now. Friday night is just perfect time for that.
– Yeah, you’re probably right, I also feel a bit too confused to continue this for now. Shall we talk next week?
– Why not… bring Jim and let’s meet on Monday.
– I couldn’t get him to join today, perhaps I’ll have better luck next time, with what you told me.
– Would be good for him.
– Let’s move.
Less than 5% people change their betting attitude over time.
Most of the bettors would get angry, if you tell them they are doing something wrong. Stay open-minded and listen to others. That’s a general human trait when challenging their long standing beliefs.
Listening to Jack’s advice might promote you into the exclusive group of betting PRO’s.
Would you accept another point of view, regarding betting?
Would you agree that perhaps there’s some knowledge, you haven’t been aware of, that can influence your betting results (improve them)?
Next chapter to follow:
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