- 1. Introduction
- 2. Recent developments
- 3. Analysis
- 4. Recommendation
Some time ago, Yobetit has been brought to our attention. They say they’re the first arbitrage bookmaker, focused exclusively on providing arbitrage opportunities. We have reviewed them in July 2012 based on the limited information available, and have given them the benefit of the doubt.
Let’s see how the project developed since then. This review is completely independent and unbiased – it’s just our view of the actions (or lack of them) since the last one.
2. Recent developments
First and foremost, Yobetit has failed to launch as promised. Also, the tests they’d promised to make available to the community before the launch have not taken place. We’ve been refused access to their platform for the purpose of this review, despite being promised so in July. As a positive development, they’ve recently gotten their Malta LGA license, which is necessary for further operation, and indirectly proves their budget to be reasonably high. They’ve also improved their affiliate panel and website. One of our web specialists points out to a quality design of their web pages which definitely involves some very qualified personnel. Based on the amount of work put into their websites and webinars, as well as a suboptimal revenue sharing scheme for a Ponzi construction, we uphold our previous opinion that Yobetit is not a pyramid and is going to launch.
There are two big questions. First of all, when are they likely to start taking bets? Their first launch date in December 2012 has already been postponed twice. The latest release date of 19 February has fallen through as well. We predict they’ll be up and running by July, better if sooner, however one should not expect it to happen.
The second is whether they’ll be able to attract and keep a customer base large enough to make it profitable for the company. Generally, the current look of their website caters to financial traders, and not veteran arbers, which we believe is a great thing. Arbitrageurs have their accounts limited to the lowest amounts permitted by bookie systems (probably would be negative if it were possible), while traders have been betting recreationally or not at all, and almost surely not sharp. Bare facts are that –EV player bets (such as someone’s second leg against Bwin/GB) are the lifeblood of Yobetit and will be necessary to keep the business going for both Yobetit and their sharper customers.
Regarding the webinars, they haven’t been very informative and generally of no value to the advanced bettor. They might’ve been informative to a complete newcomer to the field. The way the seminar speakers avoid giving any concrete information is second to none, and this lack of information policy has been pervasive among their whole communication with the community.
The promotion process so far has been extremely package driven with all longer webinars so far marketing the packages extensively. However, despite this rush to sell packages, we have had fully paid packages cancelled without a word of explanation, and further information from Yobetit’s side is pending.
The Arbusers community has done some quality research on the people and company behind Yobetit and has arrived at some interesting findings. We link to the thread for the sake of completeness, as someone highly interested in the service would do well to read the whole discussion.
Yobetit has also claimed to have been in touch with multiple bookmakers. As usual no useful, verifiable information has been provided. While we definitely applaud the effort, we we’d like to be sure that the cooperating bookies won’t be deposit-only ones.
Generally speaking, we’re not much more knowledgeable now than we were in July regarding Yobetit.
They’ve failed in achieving some of their goals, while at the same demonstrating they’re serious about the business, leaving everyone involved with mixed feelings. We still believe that their operation is going to launch and continue hoping for its success, but to say that one can go in and start recommending it to everyone around without a shade of criticism is going way too far. The bookmaker is definitely an unique proposition, and therefore there’s little historical evidence of how it can or cannot work. Fast business model analysis points to influx of new, unlimited accounts as the limiting resource and whether Yobetit will succeed depends almost exclusively on this – our opinion is they’ll deliver the software in a quality way, even if it’s delayed. We also doubt anyone will be scammed in the process. Some high expectations will likely be faced with harsh reality. For more precise information about what we are talking about, as well as some comedic value, please see the aforementioned thread. Yobetit will have to make sure that their arbs are available to most if not all their customers equally, or at least according to the needs. A scenario in which few high volume, high skill bettors eat up all the value is definitely possible and requires reasonable limits or distribution algorithm, which makes the service less attractive for these highrollers. One can consider an available liquidity model based on strong initial liquidity influx (traders enter arbing by Yobetit) which will result in a growth period and possibly even further growth fuelled by people referring their friends – definitely aided by the semi-MLM structure of Yobetit’s marketing, and then a decline of liquidity due to these new arbers getting limited. How long this will take is anyone’s guess. Of course, it might be that further volume provided by bookmakers offloading risk will be enough to sustain the operation, but we consider this only likely in part.
Whether to get involved with Yobetit is mostly a question of how much risk are you willing to tolerate for a possibly big reward. As far as buying packages goes, you’ll need to market the thing aggressively in order to really profit from the globals and commission, as the big influx of customers will be soon after their launch. This is a risky proposition and you’ll have to decide for yourself. Don’t invest your entire savings in this, for sure. One will also consider if it’s profitable to buy an invite and generally play there. Why not? If you can get in reasonably early, then attack many value lines with their reduced risk proposition of 45s hold, you should be in the green. We don’t consider the event of Yobetit not paying out to be likely. However, the overall profitability of the service will rise sharply and then slowly drop off, so get in the fun early for maximum profit if you want to do it at all. The when to get in and when to get out will depend on when the peak liquidity on +EV lines is achieved, and will be something to watch for. Generally, while we’d love guys over at Yobetit to surprise us on this prediction, that’s the highly realistic view and is something to be expected.
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