How to identify a palp? (palpable error)
Perhaps one of the most important and profitable abilities for an arber is to correctly differentiate between high percentage healthy arb and a palp error.
Exceling here brings huge profit in a long run (as one correctly chooses to play safe high percentage arbs and avoid obvious mistaken lines, which placed would be voided afterwards, thus resulting in a loss).
Here, as nowhere else it is your experience, that plays major role and is decisive whether you will succeed. This, however is gained in time and there are many of Us, including me that do not want to wait too long for things to happen.
That is why we – The Surebet Monitor Team – decided to share some hints that may help you to differentiate between palps and high percentage surebets.
If you are a beginner on the Field it is suggested that you do not play arbitrages of 3% or above. After reading this article you may though decide to play also the more profitable ones.
Lets go through multiple examples showing some high percentage arbs:
1. Arb or Palp 1 – 6,59% @ Over/Under/Under – Club Friendlies
The game starts in few hours. Both 12Bet and 188Bet have similar line on over 2,75, so they are most likely right and there is no mistake of their side. Generally Asian bookies VERY seldom void bets. The question is whether Bwin’s line will be voided or not. The answer is NO.
First of all because under 3,5 line (1,55) creates just 2% healthy arbitrage with Betfair, so it is not “obviously mistaken” one. Secondly because more problematic under 2,5 line (2,35 Bwin) defines this under line as an underdog and this is consistent with under lay line at Betfair (2,22). Also defining 2,35 for under 2,5 is internally correct with 1,55 for under 3,5 (all “under” lines are overvalued).
2. Arb or Palp 2 – 6,49% @ Asian Handicap/Match – Chinese Cup (Football)
188Bet fires a high line on Yatai (2,07 – draw no bet – the slight underdog) and 2,75 for “to win a game” market. Contrary Bwin publishes 3,30 on Shenhua (the underdog) and 1,60 on X2 (draw or away). This is close call situation, however I would say it will not be voided and I suggest to play this arb. Why is that so? 188Bet is most likely right and it, as an Asian, well informed bookmaker, changed the line in favor of the away team, thus creating an arb. Bwin is a bit late and left with the old line. Slow reaction of Bwin is not a reason for voiding the bets afterwards. Also 188Bet’s 2,75 (1) and Bwin’s 1,60 (X2) result in just 1,15% arbitrage, that looks healthy.
3. Arb or Palp 3 – 4,05% @ Match/Double Chance | 3,68% @ Match – Club Friendlies Game
This is a very well defined market (just 15 minutes to kick-off) and an underdog is clear (the away team). Therefore there is no risk one can state it is obvious palp and this is clear arbitrage, that one can safely bet.
4. Arb or Palp 4 – 4,37% @ Handicap Market – Champions League Qualifiers
This is quite estabilished market (just few hours to start). If the strength difference of the Teams is very big, arbitrage opportunites are often present. This is the case here. There is a healthy 2,99% arbitrage between Pinnacle Sport and Marathon (AH +1,75) (AH -1,75), so this means that 2,78 at Marathon is correct. Also ~ 4.00 odds is normal odd for EH (X) markets and finally 2,51 of 12Bet for AH 1 (-2,5) is confirmed at BetDaq (2,49). With all odds correct and because it is a handicap market for the game with the clear underdog, this surebet is playable.
5. Arb or Palp 5 – 4,60% @ Moneyline – Philippines Basketball
First of all this is very well estabilished market (just 15 minutes till start of the game). Pinnacle Sports limit is quite high (as for that type of game) and odd (1,606) corresponds to 62% of chances for the home team, defining them as favorites. This is consistent with what other bookmakers think, publishing odds of 3,00 (or slightly below) on away teams, giving them around 30-33% chances. All in all there is no clear or obvious mistake, but a difference in estimation of Teams chances.
6. Arb or Palp 6 – 14,78% (middle: 2,67%) @ Over/Under – Polish Cup Football Game
Again there are just 3-4 hours till kick-off and we are offered 14,78% surebet (over 2,5 under 2,5) as well as 2,67% middle (over 2,5 at 2,20 in Tobet against under 3 at 1,925 in Bet365). This is very likely to be a palpable error at Tobet and if you place the over 2,5 bet at 2,20 it might well been voided. Why is that so? First of all the surebet is too high. This is however not a main reason for voiding (have seen similarly high surebets, that have not been voided). The problem is about defining an underdog here. Bet365 thinks that there will be many goals here (2,40 for under 2,5) and Tobet has opposite idea (2,20 for over 2,5). 2,40 corresponds to 41% chances for under and 59% chances for over, whereas 2,20 corresponds to 45% chances for over and 55% for under. This is 14% difference and, when the high commission for an event is added (6-9%) it makes around 20% difference in opinion.
Most likely this is than the palpable error.
7. Arb or Palp 7 – 4,95% @ Over/Under – Betfair (Betting Exchange) v. Marathon
Two things to learn on this example. There is nothing to be afraid of in betting at Betfair. One might also take 3,93% using Bet365 or 3,54% with Pinnacle Sports. As for Marathon/Panbet – this bookmaker is renown of producing a lot of high-percentage arbitrages thanks to its very low marigin as well as slow odds update and not voiding such placed bets. Sadly, they also limit fast. All in all it is safe to play this arbitrage.
As you can see there is some logic behind differentiating between palpable errors and correct arbitrage opportunities. If you would like to contribute to the thread and publish your very high surebet and/or palpable error you may wish to send a printscreen together with the brief analysis at email@example.com so it will be added and published, thus enriching the overall knowledge of the arbing community.
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